Nkhondo yamdima yozungulira makampani a semiconductor yapitilira kuyambira chaka chino.Kumapeto kwa Novembala, maiko a EU adagwirizana kuti apereke ma euro opitilira 40 biliyoni kuti apititse patsogolo luso la EU la semiconductor.Dongosolo la EU ndikuwonjezera gawo lopanga chip padziko lonse lapansi kuchokera pa 10% mpaka 20% pofika 2030.
Palibe mwangozi, kamodzi akulamulira m'munda wa Integrated dera semiconductor Japan nawonso angayerekeze kukhala osungulumwa, masiku angapo apitawo, Toyota, Denso, Sony, Nippon Telegraph ndi Telephone Corporation (NTT), Japan Zamagetsi (NEC), Softbank, Armor Man, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank mogwirizana anakhazikitsa Chip ndondomeko kampani Rapidus, akukonzekera kukwaniritsa misa kupanga tchipisi m'munsimu 2 nanometers mu 2027. Monga chachikulu Integrated dera semiconductor Chip, United States mu Chip luso mkulu mfundo ulamuliro ndi wosasiya, anasaina mu Ogasiti chaka chino kukhazikitsa "Chip ndi Science Act", idzakhala thandizo lalikulu pakukhazikitsa kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwapadziko lonse lapansi maukadaulo apamwamba ophatikizika a semiconductor chip industry siphon effect, pakali pano, Samsung, TSMC yasankha kumanga mafakitale ku United States. , makamaka kutsata ukadaulo wa chip pansi pa 5 nanometers.
Mpikisano wa Chip Globalization unayambitsanso vuto, China sichingakhale owonera.Chowonadi ndi chakuti, mbali imodzi, makampani aku China opangira zida zamagetsi akuponderezedwa kwambiri ndi omwe akupikisana nawo, komanso akuwonetsanso kufunikira kodzilamulira pawokha pamayendedwe operekera semiconductor.Mabizinesi angapo amphamvu akuti ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza chitukuko cha m'malo mwa semiconductor m'malo m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, kutanthauza kuti osunga ndalama aziyang'ana mbali zazikulu monga zida, zida ndi zoyikapo komanso kuyezetsa m'mayendedwe akumaloko.
Zida zam'mwamba: ndondomeko yakumaloko ikufulumizitsa
Mu chitukuko chachangu cha makampani zoweta semiconductor ndi pagalimoto wapawiri wa ndondomeko dziko, zoweta zida zopangira zida zopangira zida zamagetsi mbali imodzi, kupitiriza kuwonjezera magulu mankhwala, ndi pang'onopang'ono kuswa ulamuliro wa opanga akunja;kumbali ina, pitirizani kupititsa patsogolo ntchito zamalonda, ndikulowa pang'onopang'ono mumsika wapamwamba.Ngakhale zida za semiconductor kuti ifulumizitse njira yakumaloko, koma zolowa m'nyumba zikadali koyambirira, zikuyembekezeka kuwoloka msika wamakampani.
Pacific Securities katswiri Liu Guoqing ananena kuti, malinga ndi mtundu wa zida, ngakhale debinding zida kwenikweni akwaniritsa kutanthauzira, koma CMP, PVD, etching, kutentha mankhwala ndi mbali zina za mlingo kumasulira akadali otsika, pamene photolithography. , zida zachitukuko zokutira panthawiyi kuti zitheke bwino kuchokera ku 0 mpaka 1. Choncho, ponseponse, chiwerengero cha kumidzi chidakali ndi malo ochulukirapo, makamaka ku United States kudzera mu "Chip and Science Act" ndi ndondomeko yapakhomo. mulingo wowonjezera ndalama mu gawo la semiconductor, tikukhulupirira kuti mumutu wa "kutsika kwapansi + + m'malo m'nyumba", opanga zida zapakhomo akuyembekezeka kukwera m'mwamba.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a zikhazikitso zamakampani zoweta semiconductor zida kutchulidwa, ntchito ya magawo atatu oyamba a 2022 semiconductor zida makampani anayamba imathandizira kukula, makampani okwana ndalama kukula kwa 65% chaka ndi chaka;kuonjezerapo, phindu lamakampani likupitilirabe kukula.Gawo loyamba la magawo atatu mwa magawo atatu aliwonse amakampani opanga zida zopangira zida za semiconductor omwe amapeza phindu la 19.0%, 2017 mpaka pano chaka ndi chaka kukwera ndikofunika;pa nthawi yomweyo, zoweta zida semiconductor kutchulidwa makampani malamulo ambiri kukula mkulu.
Kulowetsa m'malo mwa zida za semiconductor ndiye mutu waukulu.Yang Shaohui, katswiri wa Everbright Securities, akulangiza osunga ndalama kuti amvetsere opanga zida za semiconductor SMIC, Shengmei Shanghai, North Huachuang, Core Source Micro, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Wanye Enterprise, Precision Measurement Electronics, Tianjun Technology, Huaxing Yuangchuang , Delonghi Laser, ndi Lightforce Technology.
Zida zapakatikati: kulowa munthawi yachitukuko chagolide
Kwa zida za semiconductor, ngakhale kuti Chip bilu yaku US yakulitsa zoletsa kumadera aku China otsogola, koma China yapita patsogolo kwambiri mugawo la zida zopangira zida zogwirira ntchito, makampani opanga zida za semiconductor akuyembekezeka kupanga malingaliro abwino atatha kupeza mosalekeza. malamulo, kudalira ndalama zokhazikika zomwe zimalowa kuti zilimbikitse kukulira kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo kale za semiconductor komanso m'badwo watsopano wa zida za semiconductor Product Development.
Katswiri wina wofufuza za chitetezo ku Guangda, Zhao Naidi, ananena kuti m’nyengo ya kudalirana kwa mayiko, kukhazikitsidwa kwa mabilu kapena ndondomeko zoterezi ku United States sikuthandiza kuti kugwirizana kwa mayiko kupite patsogolo, koma kumafulumizitsa chitukuko cha kugawikana kwa mafakitale ogwirizana nawo.Tiyeneranso kufulumizitsa kuti tikwaniritse kusiyana pakati pa China m'madera ena akuluakulu ndi dziko lonse lapansi.
Pakali pano, zoweta semiconductor kupanga zipangizo kumasulira mlingo wa pafupifupi 10%, makamaka zimadalira zochokera kunja.Pakadali pano, China ikuyesetsanso kwambiri kuthandizira kukhazikitsidwa kwamakampani a khosi la makhadi, ndipo opanga zida zathu za semiconductor apititsa patsogolo kupita patsogolo kwa kulowetsa m'malo.Pankhani ya mabwalo ophatikizika, mathamangitsidwe a m'malo am'deralo, kukweza ukadaulo wamakampani ndi thandizo lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi ndi chithandizo china chabwino, makampani am'nyumba za semiconductor akuyembekezeka kuyambitsa nthawi yachitukuko chagolide, mndandanda wamabizinesi apamwamba kwambiri. akuyembekezeredwa kutsogolera kupindula.
Nsalu zopyapyala zomwe zangomangidwa kumene zidzakhala bwalo lankhondo lalikulu la zida zam'deralo za semiconductor kuti awonjezere gawo lawo.Katswiri wazachitetezo a Hu Yang adanenanso kuti nthawi yopangira nsalu yatsopanoyi idayamba mu 2022-2024, poganiza kuti nthawi yazenera yagolide ipitilira zaka 2-3, yomwe ndi nthawi yabwino kuti mabizinesi asinthe zida za semiconductor kunyumba. .Ndibwino kuti osunga ndalama aziganizira za Jingrui Electric Material, Powerful New Material, Nanda Optoelectronics, Jacques Technology, Jianghua Micro, Juhua, Haohua Technology, Huatech Gas, Shanghai Xinyang, etc.
Kuyika ndi kuyesa kutsika: gawo la msika likupitilira kukula
Kuyika ndi kuyesa kwa IC kuli kumunsi kwa unyolo wamakampani, omwe amatha kugawidwa m'magawo awiri: kuyika ndi kuyesa.Pansi pa chitukuko cha ukatswiri ndi kugawikana kwa ogwira ntchito m'makampani a IC, ma IC ambiri oyika ndikuyesa adzatuluka kuchokera kwa opanga azikhalidwe a IDM, zomwe ndi zabwino kumabizinesi onyamula ndi kuyesa.
Magwero ena amakampani akuwonetsa kuti m'zaka zaposachedwa, opanga zoweta akhala akusonkhanitsa umisiri wotsogola wotsogola kudzera pakuphatikiza ndi kugula, ndipo nsanja yaukadaulo yakhala ikugwirizana ndi opanga kunja, ndipo kuchuluka kwa ma CD apamwamba aku China padziko lapansi kukuchulukirachulukira.Potengera ndondomeko zapakhomo zomwe zikuthandizira kulongedza kwapamwamba, mayendedwe a chitukuko chapakhomo akuyembekezeka kukulirakulira m'tsogolomu.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, chifukwa cha mikangano yamalonda pakati pa China ndi US, kufunikira kwa m'malo mwa nyumba kumakhala kolimba, gawo la atsogoleri onyamula katundu wapakhomo lidzawonjezeka, ndipo opanga ma CD apakhomo akadali ndi phindu lalikulu.
Ndi kulimbikitsa kusamutsa kwamakampani a semiconductor, mwayi wokwera mtengo wa anthu komanso makonda amisonkho, kuchuluka kwapadziko lonse kwa IC kumasunthira pang'onopang'ono kupita kudera la Asia Pacific ndipo bizinesiyo ikukulabe.Malinga ndi zomwe mabungwe okhudzana nawo, kukula kwa msika waku China wa IC kwakhala kokwera kwambiri kuposa wapadziko lonse lapansi kwazaka zopitilira 10;okhudzidwa ndi mliriwu, ma semiconductors ambiri padziko lonse lapansi akupitiliza kukhala olimba kapena kusokonezedwa pa nthawi ya mliri, ndipo kuperekera kukupitilizabe kukhala kolimba kapena kusokonezedwa pa nthawi ya mliri, kuphatikizika ndi kufunikira kwamphamvu kwa magalimoto amagetsi atsopano, AioT ndi AR/VR. , etc., ma semiconductor foundries ambiri amakhala ndi ntchito yayikulu.Kutengera kuchuluka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito kakuchulukirachulukira komanso kufunikira kopitilira muyeso munthawi ya mliriwu, ndalama zomwe opanga ma semiconductor akupanga padziko lonse lapansi akuyembekezeka kukhalabe amphamvu komanso opanga ma CD akuyembekezeka kupindula mokwanira.
Katswiri wa Dongguan Securities Liu Menglin adanenanso kuti China ili ndi mpikisano wamphamvu wapakhomo pakuyika ndi kuyesa, ndipo ikuyembekeza kuwongolera kwa phindu komwe kumabwera chifukwa chakukula kosalekeza kwa ma CD apamwamba kumakampani omwe ali ndi vuto lalikulu pakapita nthawi.Ndi bwino kulabadira Changdian Technology, Huatian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingfang Technology ndi mabizinesi ena okhudzana.
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Nthawi yotumiza: Dec-17-2022